This Week in Add-On Superdelegates w/a note on Popular Vote

Another week has passed, and there hasn't been a whole lot happen on the add-on superdelegate front.  The four undeclared add-ons remain so (list below the fold).  The biggest news comes from yesterday's Rules Committee result regarding Florida and Michigan.  The five add-ons from those two states will each get half a vote, bringing the total number of add-on superdelegate votes to 78.5 instead of 76, with 29 left to be chosen.  (31 including two Michigan half-votes already pledged to Obama as part of this weekend's Rules Committee deal.  Here's where the add-on superdelegate count stood at the beginning of the week:

     Obama - 25    Clinton - 17    Undeclared - 4

This week's add-ons:

1. Maine, June 1 chose Gwethalyn Phillips as its add-on superdelegate.  She supports Obama, as per previous announcement that Maine's add-on would reflect Obama's 59.8-42.2% victory in the state's caucus.

2. Florida's three add-ons were chosen on April 5, and each will get 0.5 votes.  Two, Steve Geller and Alex Sink, are undeclared.  The last, Dan Gelber, Minority Leader of the Florida State House (from Miami Beach), has previously declared for Obama.  Dan Gelber with DNC Chairman Howard Dean:

                 

3. Michigan will choose two add-ons June 14, each with 1/2 vote, and both sworn to Obama as a little-discussed portion of yesterday's DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee settlement.  According to Chuck Todd:

The deal reached, NBC NEWS has learned, is a 69-59 split with half votes in Michigan. Obama will be guaranteed the two add-on superdelegates. NBC NEWS has not confirmed if the superdelegates will get half or full votes.

Add-on superdelegates being the backwater beat that they are, I found no other mention of the deal including Obama getting both add-ons.  There was nothing anywhere about what the rationale was for giving both of these to Obama.  Maybe it's like those obscure riders to Congressional bills that nobody notices?  Todd was reporting on the a tip on the settlement before the committee came back into session after its lengthy break.  So I would not be stunned if it works out differently than his report in the end.

At the end of this week, here's where the superdelegates stand.  There's 29 more to be chosen.  I'm including Michigan's two half-votes for Obama, even if they've not been named yet:

     Obama - 27.5    Clinton - 17    Undeclared - 5

Add-on Predictions June 2-8 (12 delgates at stake)

Unlike last week, this week is a busy one for add-ons.  With the nomination probably being actually, finally settled this week (at least to the reality-based), with Obama getting the absolute number of 2118 delegate votes, this might be the last week there's much interest in stories about superdelegates, add-on or otherwise.  Unless otherwise indicated, each state picks one add-on superdelegate:

Kentucky (June 7, Saturday)- State Convention.
...Other superdelegates: Obama 2, Clinton 3, Undeclared 3
...Primary: Clinton 68.6%, Obama 31.4% (37.2% margin)

Minnesota (2) (June 7, Saturday) - State Convention.
...Caucus: Obama 67.3%, Clinton 32.7% (34.6% margin)
...Other superdelegates: Obama 10, Clinton 3, Undeclared 1
...Prediction:  2 for Obama

Pennsylvania (3) (June 7, Saturday) - State Committee.
...Primary: Clinton 54.6%, Obama 45.4% (9.2% margin)
...Other superdelegates: Obama 5, Clinton 17, Undeclared 4
...Prediction: Clinton 2, Obama 1

Texas (3) (June 7, Saturday) - State Convention.
...Primary: Clinton 51.8%, Obama 48.2% (3.6% margin)
...Other superdelegates: Obama 14, Clinton 14, Undeclared 4
...Prediction:  Obama 2, Clinton 1

Vermont (June 7, Saturday) - Chosen by district delegates.
...Primary: Obama 60.6%, Clinton 39.4% (21.2% margin)
...Other superdelegates: Obama 5, Clinton 1, Undeclared 1  
...Prediction: Obama

Mississippi (June 7, Saturday) - State Convention.
...Primary: Obama 62.5%, Clinton 37.5% (25.0% margin)
...Other superdelegates: Obama 4, Clinton 0, Undeclared 3
...Prediction: Obama

Montana (June 8, Sunday) - State Convention.
...Primary: n/a
...Other superdelegates: Obama 3, Clinton 0, Undeclared 5
...Prediction: Obama

A note on Texas:  I found an article about political maneuvering and power brokering on the Obama side in Texas vis-a-vis next weekend's convention.  As several recent diaries have reporte, there are challenges (from the Clinton side) still active, and we can expect some of the most colorful convention stories next weekend to come out of Texas.  There's maybe going to be a lot of work needed to rebuild party unity in Texas.  And I sure want that to happen, because I'd like to see Jon Cornyn out looking for a new job come 2009.

Remaining undeclared add-ons:

I'm predicting that all of these, save the two half-votes from Florida will declare this week.

1. Arizona - Terry Goddard (Prediction: Obama)

2. Missouri - Jay Nixon (Prediction: Obama)

3. Nevada - Rusty McAllister (Prediction: Obama) [Note: McAllister caucused for Obama.]

4. Tennessee - Jerry Lee (Prediction: Obama)  [Note:  Tennessee's other add-on has declared for Hillary.]

5. Florida - Steve Geller and Alex Sink, with 1/2 vote each.  (Prediction: One each for Obama & Clinton for 1/2 vote each, but not this week)

My prediction for add on superdelegates at the end of the week is:

     Obama - 39.5    Clinton - 21    Undeclared - 1

There will be 17 more chosen over the following two weeks.

About that "popular vote"?

Yesterday's Detroit News addresses the question of write-in ballots.  About 30,000 of them were disallowed in Michigan.  Harold Ickes did not acknowledge the existence of those ballots, and the "fair reflection" of those votes, of which about 30,000 were cast:

There is principle at stake, too, for Stuart Mahler of Clarkston. He and his wife were confused when their candidate, Obama, was missing from their absentee ballots -- and appalled when they learned write-in votes wouldn't count under state election law.

Perhaps that figured into the little-mentioned add-on component of yesterday's Rules Committee Decision.  And, for context, also consider New Mexico, November 2006 - results for U.S. House races:

NM-01
105,125 Democratic votes (49.8%)
105,986 Republican votes (50.2%)

NM-02
63,119 Democratic votes (40.5%)
92,620 Republican votes (59.4%)

NM-03
144,880 Democratic votes (74.6%)
49,219 Republican votes (25.4%)

Statewide
313,124 Democratic votes (55.8%)
247,825 Republican votes (44.2%)

The Democrats got 56% of the vote (rounded).  And won one out of three seats.  That's how popular vote works sometimes.

Meanwhile, Harold Ickes is on my TV now (MTP rerun), arguing that leading in "popular vote" includes the beauty contest primaries in states like Washington, including Michigan (giving Obama zero there, not even those write-ins with his name on 'em) and leaving out some of the caucus states entirely.

I'll be glad when this is (finally) settled, and we can move on to the general.  Meanwhile, NM has its primary on Tuesday for all but Presidential.  With all seats open, one can barely turn on the TV without getting political ads.  I'll be glad when that's over, too, and we'll know who our candidates are.  I'm a poll worker on Tuesday, so perhaps I'll diary a report on that experience.

Go Martin Heinrich!